Interpreting Discrete Choice Models

Interpreting Discrete Choice Models by Garrett Glasgow, published by Cambridge University Press on May 12, 2022, is a concise 75-page exploration of the complexities involved in discrete choice models. This edition presents a detailed examination of how independent variables relate to choice probabilities, emphasizing the nonlinear nature of these relationships. The book outlines essential interpretative techniques, including first differences, marginal effects, and odds ratios, providing a foundational understanding for readers interested in the statistical analysis of choice behavior.
Readers will find a thorough discussion of various models, such as binary logits, ordered logits, and multinomial logits, along with mixed discrete choice models. The text also addresses the importance of accounting for estimation uncertainty in the interpretation process. By focusing on the substantive effects of independent variables, this book serves as a valuable resource for those engaged in political science, social science, data science, and related fields, offering insights into the methodologies applicable to discrete dependent variables.
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In discrete choice models the relationships between the independent variables and the choice probabilities are nonlinear, depending on both the value of the particular independent variable being interpreted and the values of the other independent variables. Thus, interpreting the magnitude of the effects (the “substantive effects”) of the independent variables on choice behavior requires the use of additional interpretative techniques. Three common techniques for interpretation are described here: first differences, marginal effects and elasticities, and odds ratios. Concepts related to these techniques are also discussed, as well as methods to account for estimation uncertainty. Interpretation of binary logits, ordered logits, multinomial and conditional logits, and mixed discrete choice models such as mixed multinomial logits and random effects logits for panel data are covered in detail. The techniques discussed here are general, and can be applied to other models with discrete dependent variables which are not specifically described here.
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