Deterrence Theory and Chinese Behavior
“Deterrence Theory and Chinese Behavior” by Abram N. Shulsky, published by Rand in 2000, explores the implications of China’s economic growth and its potential to become a significant rival to the United States. This 85-page report examines the historical context of U.S. policy in relation to rising powers, particularly focusing on the challenges posed by China’s ascent in the East Asian region. The analysis highlights the complexities of applying deterrence theory in the evolving Sino-U.S. relationship, suggesting that traditional military strategies may be less effective than diplomatic approaches.
Readers will find a detailed discussion on how the dynamics of deterrence theory may shift in light of China’s reforms and growing influence. The report emphasizes the importance of nonmilitary means of deterrence, advocating for diplomatic strategies that could manipulate tensions to the disadvantage of China. By addressing key subjects such as military strategy, international relations, and security, this work provides insights into the future of U.S.-China relations and the broader implications for global power structures.
Official synopsis Publisher
China’s recent reforms have led to unprecedented economic growth; if this continues, China will be able to turn its great potential power into actual power. The result could be, in the very long term, the rise of China as a rival to the United States as the world’s predominant power; in the nearer term, China could become a significant rival in the East Asian region. In this context, the issue for U.S. policy is how to handle a rising power, a problem that predominant powers have faced many times throughout history. It is the contention of this report that the future Sino-U.S. context will illustrate many of the problems of deterrence theory that have been discussed in recent decades; deterrence theory will be, in general, more difficult to apply than it was in the U.S.-Soviet Cold War context. The key may be to seek nonmilitary means of deterrence, i.e., diplomatic ways to manipulate the tension to China’s disadvantage.
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