Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace

“This book challenges the conventional wisdom-one that has long been asserted by policymakers and cyber experts alike-that cyberspace is a dangerous environment prone to escalation. Rather than triggering increasingly severe patterns of violence, the evidence shows that cyber actions and responses generally follow a proportionate, tit-for-tat dynamic. Therefore, this book offers a theoretical framework that draws on core conceptions in security studies and extends their logic to the cyber domain to explain the general absence of cyber escalation. In doing so, it draws on central characteristics of cyber operations that the authors argue mitigate pathways to escalation and dampen the potential for strategic interactions between rival states in cyberspace to intensify. In the book, the theory’s logic is also extended to explore the conditions under which cyber operations could contribute to the de-escalation of crises, as well as articulate proposition for specific scenarios in which-despite the overall low probability-escalation could nevertheless occur. In this sense, the book offers a comprehensive perspective on the nature of cyber escalation across the spectrum from competition to crisis and conflict. It not only seeks to interrogate long-held assumptions about escalation in cyberspace, but also to reframe the conversation away from binary debates about whether or not escalation is likely and instead identify the conditions under which escalation-or de-escalation-may be more or less likely as a result of cyber operations. To evaluate these arguments, the authors assess cyber behavior in the context of a number of different crises and strategic rivalries, with deep dives into several dyads involving the United States and its rivals. The question of whether cyberspace is escalatory is not one of mere semantics or academic inquiry; there are direct and significant implications for states that may discount, overestimate, or miscalculate the risks of operating in and through cyberspace. Therefore, the book concludes by discussing a series of implementable policy recommendations that stem from the analysis, with a focus on the implications for U.S. cyber strategy and operations”–