21st Century Presidential Elections

21st Century Presidential Elections by David Walker, published by North American Business Press, Incorporated on August 20, 2024, is a detailed examination of presidential election forecasting in the modern era. This 140-page monograph is written in English and draws from the author’s peer-reviewed studies on elections in the twenty-first century. It aims to provide insights into the forecasting process, focusing on the accuracy of predictions across five elections, where the mean and median errors are notably low at 0.6 percent.

In this work, Dr. Walker encourages forecasters, political scientists, economists, and advanced students to adopt innovative approaches to election forecasting. The book enhances Fair’s voting model by incorporating new issues and additional data for each election, including significant historical events like the Korean and Vietnam wars. The analysis highlights that presidential outcomes are primarily influenced by campaigns in just seven states, alongside voting histories in 43 states, offering a focused perspective on the dynamics of American electoral politics.